OK- the hurricane forecast for the 2007 season is out, from whatever wizard peers into his scrying mirror, doppler radar, or whatever substitute for tea leaves they use, and it looks like Doom For Sure. What I want to know is what this means. To me.
"He (N.E. Cromancer) says there's a 74% chance of a major hurricane making landfall on the US coast. He says there's a 49% chance of a major hurricane landfall on the Gulf Coast between the Florida Panhandle and Brownsville. The 20th century average was 30%."
We can dispose of #1 on the general assumption that since I don't live within 800 miles of a coast, we can call it a miss.
Does #2 mean "this year?" And, if so-
How does it relate to #3's stated average for the 20th Century (if I understand the concept of "average" aright, and I think I do)?
Am I correct in assuming that there can't be any real relation? Did the stoplight just change to green, and is that my favorite color? Did a few too many brain cells just go "poof?"
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